The Stakes
As Taiwan prepares to elect a new president in 2024, the world watches with bated breath. The island nation has been a flashpoint for tensions between China and the United States for decades, and the outcome of the election could have major implications for regional stability.
The two main candidates in the race are incumbent President Tsai Ing-wen, who favors maintaining the status quo with China, and Han Kuo-yu, a former mayor of Kaohsiung who has called for closer ties with Beijing.
Experts Weigh In
International experts are divided on what the future holds for Taiwan. Some believe that Tsai’s re-election would be the best outcome for stability, while others warn that Han’s victory could lead to increased tensions with China.
Tsai’s re-election would likely maintain the current status quo, which is preferable to a sudden shift in policy that could destabilize the region, said Bonnie Glaser, director of the China Power Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
However, others argue that Han’s victory could actually reduce tensions with China. They point to his business ties with the mainland and his willingness to engage with Beijing.
Han has a more pragmatic approach to relations with China than Tsai, said Michael Swaine, a senior fellow at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft. He is more likely to seek common ground with Beijing, which could help to ease tensions.
The China Factor
China has made it clear that it considers Taiwan to be part of its territory, and it has repeatedly threatened to use force to prevent the island from declaring independence. The Chinese government has also been increasingly assertive in the South China Sea, which has raised concerns about its intentions towards Taiwan.
China’s growing military power and its more aggressive posture in the region are a major concern for Taiwan, said David Stilwell, a former assistant secretary of state for East Asia. Beijing’s threats to use force against Taiwan are real, and they cannot be dismissed.
However, some experts believe that China is more likely to use economic and diplomatic pressure to bring Taiwan under its control, rather than resorting to military action.
China has a lot of economic leverage over Taiwan, and it can also use its diplomatic connections to isolate the island, said Christina Larson, director of the China Program at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. Beijing is likely to continue to use these tools to pressure Taiwan into accepting its terms.
The US Role
The United States has been Taiwan’s most important ally for decades, and it has repeatedly pledged to defend the island against any attack from China. However, the US has also been careful to avoid provoking Beijing, and it has not made any explicit commitment to intervene militarily if China attacks Taiwan.
The US has a long-standing policy of strategic ambiguity towards Taiwan, said Richard Bush, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. This policy has helped to deter China from using force against Taiwan, but it has also left Taiwan vulnerable to pressure from Beijing.
Some experts believe that the US should do more to deter China from attacking Taiwan, while others argue that it should continue to pursue a policy of strategic ambiguity.
The US needs to send a clear message to China that it will not tolerate any attempt to use force against Taiwan, said Daniel Russel, a former assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs.
However, others warn that a more aggressive US approach could actually increase tensions with China and make it more difficult to find a peaceful solution to the Taiwan issue.
The US should continue to pursue a policy of strategic ambiguity, said Susan Shirk, a professor of Chinese politics at the University of California, San Diego. This policy has served the US and Taiwan well for decades, and it should continue to be the cornerstone of US policy towards Taiwan.
Conclusion
The future of Taiwan is uncertain, and the outcome of the 2024 presidential election will play a major role in shaping the island’s destiny. International experts are divided on what the future holds, but they all agree that the situation is complex and fraught with danger.
Kind regards,
E. Thompson
