Is the Home Run Surge Over? It’s Too Soon to Say
After two consecutive seasons of record-breaking home run totals, the pace of home runs has slowed down in 2023. Through the end of May, teams are averaging 1.13 home runs per game, down from 1.29 in 2021 and 1.39 in 2022.
So, is the home run surge over? It’s too soon to say for sure, but there are a few possible reasons for the decline in home runs.
One possibility is that pitchers are simply adjusting to the new realities of the game. After years of declining velocity, pitchers are now throwing harder than ever before. They are also using more advanced data and analytics to find areas to exploit in hitters’ swings.
Another possibility is that the crackdown on foreign substances has had an impact. In 2021, Major League Baseball began cracking down on pitchers using foreign substances to improve their grip on the ball. This has led to a decrease in spin rates, which can make it more difficult for pitchers to generate strikeouts.
Finally, it’s also possible that the decline in home runs is simply a cyclical trend. Home run totals have fluctuated over the years, and it’s possible that we are simply in a down cycle.
Only time will tell whether the home run surge is over. But for now, it’s too soon to say for sure.
Here are some additional factors that could be contributing to the decline in home runs:
- The weather: The weather has been colder and windier than usual this season, which can make it more difficult for hitters to drive the ball.
- The ball: There have been some anecdotal reports that the baseballs are not flying as far this season. This could be due to a change in the manufacturing process or simply to random variation.
- The shift: Teams are continuing to use the shift more frequently, which can make it more difficult for hitters to find holes in the defense.
It’s important to note that the decline in home runs is not uniform across the league. Some teams, such as the New York Yankees and the Los Angeles Dodgers, are still hitting home runs at a record pace. Other teams, such as the Chicago Cubs and the Pittsburgh Pirates, are struggling to generate offense.
Overall, it’s too soon to say whether the home run surge is over. There are a number of factors that could be contributing to the decline in home runs, but it’s too early to draw any conclusions. Only time will tell whether this is a temporary blip or a sign of a more permanent change in the game.
Kind regards,
Z. McDowell
