Would Swinney save the SNP?
John Swinney has been the MSP for Perthshire North since 1999, and has held a number of cabinet positions in the Scottish Government, including Deputy First Minister and Cabinet Secretary for Education.
He is widely seen as a potential successor to Nicola Sturgeon as SNP leader.
SNP MSPs are starting to wonder if Swinney has the right attributes to save the SNP from what some are predicting will be a disastrous result at the 2023 Scottish Parliament election.
Two disastrous opinion polls from the past few weeks have SNP strategists fearing the worst. The SNP has been the dominant force in Scottish politics for 15 years, but recent polls suggest that support for the party is falling.
Polls predict SNP will lose next election
A poll by YouGov in early August put the SNP on just 26%, behind the Labour party. A further poll by Savanta ComRes, towards the end of August, put the SNP on 24%, Labour on 32%, the Conservatives on 21% and the Liberal Democrats on 10%.
Both polls were the latest in a series of polls which have shown the SNP’s support falling and would see the SNP losing its majority in the Scottish Parliament, leading to some commentators predicting that the party could lose its historic dominance of Scottish politics.
The Scottish Parliament election is due to take place in May next year. The SNP won the last election in 2021, winning 64 seats it’s largest ever share of the vote, and a majority in the Scottish Parliament.
Swinney considering his leadership options
Swinney is said to be considering his options, but has not yet made a decision about whether to stand for the leadership, stating:
Although he has not yet formally declared his candidacy, Swinney is seen as a frontrunner in the race to succeed Sturgeon. He is a long-serving and experienced politician, and is seen as a safe pair of hands. However, he is also seen as being somewhat lacking in charisma, and some believe that he may not be the best person to lead the SNP into the future.
SNP MSPs will mull over the poll results in the weeks and months to come and try and decide on the ideal candidate to lead the party into the 2023 elections.
Kind regards E. Thompson.
